Elections 2009 - As the dust settles down...

It is a well known fact that when the losing party accepts defeat gracefully and with humility, respect from all quarters pours in. For 5 years, the BJP was unable to do it and finally it seems that the party is left with little option.

As opposed to the 2004 verdict which was a little muddled thanks to the looming presence of the charismatic AB Vajpayee, this time, the mandate is squarely in favor of the congress party. If one looks at the reasons, they are not difficult to find. They would help the losers introspect and the victor to be responsible and thankful to the electorate.

• The BJP leadership was not appealing to the masses with LK Advani's image far from being clean. The vacuum was hard to fill. Internal squabbles due to strong personalities in Jaswant Singh, Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley resulted in a less than cohesive unit. Darjeeling and Telengana proved that the party was power hungry.
  
• A motley group of regional parties - DMDK in TN, Praja Rajyam in AP and MNS in Maharashtra - helped split the anti congress vote. In some cases, people were suspicious as was the case with SP and BSP in UP. Mayawati was ready to join any combine while Kalyan Singh was welcomed to the folds of SP. As a result, the congress gamble paid off handsomely.
• The Left overestimated its prowess and is left badly bruised and shattered. It failed to read the voter; the increasing awareness among the electorate led to its downfall. It might be a while before there can be a resurgence for Karat and Co if at all there is one.
  
• The image of Manmohan Singh as a sincere and honest person won the congress, the votes of the middle class and the youth. The BJP lost a considerable chunk of middle class vote due to its negative campaign and its failure to offer a credible alternative policy framework in the absence of any single over arching issue.
• The saturation of BJP in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP and its ally in Bihar meant it was always going to reap handsome rewards in these states and little elsewhere.
• The singular failure of BJP to give its party a youthful look and the fortunate irony of Rahul Gandhi garnering the media support again led to first time voters rejecting the NDA in favor of the UPA.
• Good monsoons and reasonable success of NREGA and populist policies ensured that though the coffers were getting drained, sizeable chunk of rural votes were a given.
  

This election also offered some insights. While the kind of identity politics presented by the MNS and celebrity power in the south were rejected, some incidents that were given obsessive attention by the media like the pub attack in Mangalore fell on the back burner for the electorate.

Looking forward to the next 5 years, the average Indian is happy that there is no commotion and mad scrambles. At the same time, several issues cry out for attention from security to Economy to Climate Change. We wait in anticipation and have high expectations from a team, that I am sure, has some able Men and Women ready to shoulder huge responsibilities.

I salute our democratic system and end this post!

My tryst with the ballot

The Lok Sabha elections going on in our country is undoubtedly a spectacle; people from all classes and walks of life are queuing up and in a sense surrendering a small part of their destinies to the numerous political parties and independent candidates. In doing so, they reaffirm their commitment to a democratic system where elected representatives decide policies and shape a nations' future.

On April 23, I joined the queue next street in Jayanagar, Bangalore to vote. Thankfully, the personnel outside the polling booth found my name on the electoral rolls and I was saved the ignominy of having to return empty handed without the indelible ink mark that has come to be reckoned as a mark of pride. Three cheers to Jaago Re, it was their hassle free and smooth process that had awakened me to the importance of voting and made the whole effort easier.

Having done by duty, I felt an immense sense of satisfaction though the road I was walking on showed every sign of the rain, the day before - the glaring lack of infrastructure serving to bring me back to reality.

This year, the election results might not be clearly favoring either of the two national parties as they have been for quite a few times now. It is all the more exciting to wait for the results and know who will be leading this country out of the harsh effects of the current economic recession. I can only hope that the mandate of the people is taken in the right spirit by all the parties and respected, though I know that it is a pretty tall ask in the current scenario!

Countdown to the Lok Sabha Elections begins...

With the outcome of the recently concluded assembly elections, the countdown has begun well and truly for the Lok Sabha polls around March-April next year. The signs don't augur well at the outset.

Delhi:

Sheila Dikshit was voted back for the third consecutive time - This means that the electorate did not have a better choice and chose the lesser devil of the two. For a person, who has shot herself on the foot through several indiscriminate and unthoughtful public comments, the recent one being after the murder of Soumya Viswanathan, the public clearly felt BJP would be a worse option.

Rajasthan:

The outgoing CM played with fire while promising reservation in the election campaign and had to face immense public scrutiny and shock over the Gujjar agitation that followed as a result. Anti-incumbency played a role here though not as heavily as many had presumed.

Madhya Pradesh:

It was a vote for populism and people again realized that they would be worse off with the opposition in power - the subsidized rice and promise of bicycles together with the perception of development and the image of the CM played a definite part.

Chattisgarh:

In voting back Raman Singh, people have approved of the strong anti-naxal action image of his.

What is crucial is that BJP was unable to capitalize electorally on the question of terrorism and tough anti-terror laws. But despite our press believing so, I feel that the people have voted smartly - they realized that it is the central Government whose role is critical for strong measures. They have also decisively lessened the impact of anti-incumbency. No analyst worth his salt can henceforth rattle off that jargon. Three states have defied that and quite impressively in at least two!

Introspection time:

It is time for all the key players to introspect which our political parties and their leaders can hardly be expected to do. For the BJP, the sooner it comes to terms with the fact that narrow agendas won't work anymore, the sooner it can hope to make gains. LK Advani as the choice in itself might distance some traditional loyalists who have voted for the lotus because of Vajpayee's image. It needs to tread a cautious path with its known well wishers so that it remains firmly mainstream.

The Congress is by far the gaining party in the equation but not without riders. It should focus during the next three months on the decisive handling of the current mess at the center and in Maharashtra in particular. Economy and diplomacy are the keywords and much depends on our PM and External affairs minister in the current scenario. A strong candidate backed by shrewd strategy management is absolutely necessary for the congress to return to the center next year.

The BSP and its dreams lie shattered. The Left is making some seemingly smart political moves but in doing so, the image of a squeaky clean party is taking a severe beating. Alliance with Mayawati and Jaya can tarnish that in due course. Its influence is confined to pockets of the country and hopes of a third front are still very romantic at best.

With a picture that is delicately poised, it is anybody's guess as to how the Lok Sabha polls might swing. It looks as if the voter is not yet decided. The next 3-4 months are hence all the more critical for all the major political players. Did anybody speak about the nuclear deal by any chance?